The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Jimena, located about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.
A broad area of low pressure is forming several hundred miles
southwest of the coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some development next week while the system moves toward the west at about 10 mph.
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
Posted Aug 28, 2015, 2:28 PM by Tom Kachelman
Blanca Tropical Storm and Andres Hurricane
Blanca Rapid strengthening is forecast. At 04:00hr CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blanca was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 104.6 West, about 585km/365 mi SW of Zihuatanejo and about 635km/395mi S of Manzanillo Mexico
Blanca is moving toward the west near 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow and erratic motion is expected during the next couple of days.
The tropical storm Blanca appears to be poised to intensify as a favorable environment characterized by low shear, warm water, and a moist atmosphere is expected during the next few days.
The ASCAT data suggest that Blanca has drifted westward overnight, however, little overall motion is forecast during the next couple of ...
Posted Jun 2, 2015, 5:26 AM by Tom Kachelman
Vance still strong category 2 Hurricane
Vance still a strong category two hurricane. Tropical storm watch issued for portions of southwestern Mexico. At 19:00hr PST the center of Hurricane Vance was about 160 km 100 mi SSE of Socorro island and about 780 km - about 485 mi SW of Mazatlan Mexico
with maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h. The present movement is NNE or 20 degrees at 20 km/h - 13 mph.
The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch from Mazatlan northward to Topolobampo Mexico.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for:
Mazatlan northward to Topolobampo Mexico
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the ...
Posted May 11, 2015, 1:21 PM by Tom Kachelman
Vance a category 2 hurricane
Vance a category 2 hurricane maintaining 165 km/h winds located near latitude 14.5 north - longitude 110.3 west (about 810 km/ 505 mi SW of Manzanillo Mexico)
Hurricane Vance is moving toward the northwest near 22 km/h - 14 mph and a turn toward the north is expected by tonight followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast on Tuesday.
Satellite images indicate that Vance is maintaining its intensity, with very cold-topped inner core convection.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 165 km/h - 105 mph with higher gusts.
Vance could strengthen a little more today but a weakening trend is expected to begin tonight with steady to rapid weakening forecast thereafter.
Swells generated by Vance are expected ...
Posted Nov 3, 2014, 6:46 AM by Tom Kachelman
Hurricane - a natural disasters with far reaching consequences
The term "hurricane" is derived from "Taino", a native american word which means evil spirit of the wind. In short hurricanes are engines of destruction and a huge hurricane can release energy equivalent to 10 atomic bombs per second.
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale defines hurricane strength by categories. A Category 1 storm is the weakest hurricane with winds having speed between 74-95 mph; a Category 5 hurricane is the strongest with winds greater than 155 mph.
Hurricanes are giant, spiraling tropical storms that can pack wind speeds of over 160 miles (257 kilometers) an hour and unleash more than 2.4 trillion gallons (9 trillion liters) of rain a day.
These same tropical storms are known as cyclones ...
Posted Sep 22, 2014, 8:36 PM by Tom Kachelman
Polo to pass south of Baja Saturday
Polo to pass south of the Baja California peninsula on Saturday. At 05:00 hr PDT the center of Tropical Storm Polo was about 470 km - 290 mi SSE of the southern tip of Baja California.
Interests elsewhere in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Polo.
A Tropical Storm Warning could be required for portions of the peninsula later today.
Polo is moving toward the northwest near 13 km/h - 8 mph and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected today.
A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Saturday.
On the forecast track the center will continue to move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico today and pass south ...
Posted Sep 19, 2014, 5:44 AM by Tom Kachelman
Hurricane Polo 800 km south of Baja moving north
At 05:00 hr PDT the center of Hurricane Polo was located about 820 km - 510 mi SE of the southern tip of Baja California. Polo is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 km/h - 8 mph. A turn toward the northwest is expected later today with a northwestward motion continuing through Saturday.
On the forecast track Polo will move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico.
However any deviation to the north of the track could bring stronger winds to the coast.
The storm is close enough to the coast that a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of southwest Mexico.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 km/h - 75 mph with higher gusts.
Posted Sep 18, 2014, 8:40 AM by Tom Kachelman
Polo nearly a hurricane
The Pacific coast of Mexico has a new hurricane threat to be concerned with - Tropical Storm Polo, which had intensified to 60 mph sustained winds 260 miles SSE of Manzanillo, Mexico at 11 am EDT Wednesday.
The models have come into increasing agreement that the core of Polo will stay offshore, but the storm is close enough to the coast that a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Southwest Mexico.
At 14:00hr PDT the center of Tropical Storm Polo was located about 295 km - 185 mi SSE of Manzanillo Mexico about 265 km - 165 mi WSW of Zihuatanejo Mexico maximum sustained winds 110 km/h - 70 mph.
Polo is the sort of thing which can ...
Posted Sep 17, 2014, 3:43 PM by Tom Kachelman
Major Hurricane Odile expected to affect southern Baja California
At 14:00hr PDT the center of the eye of major Hurricane Odile was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft about 225 km - 140 mi SSE of the southern tip of Baja California. Odile is moving toward the north-northwest near 24 km/h - 15 mph and this general motion is expected during the next day or two.
On the forecast track the core of Odile will pass near or over the southern portion of Baja California Sur tonight and Monday.
Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 205 km/h - 125 mph with higher gusts. Odile is a strong category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.
Some slight strengthening ...
Posted Sep 14, 2014, 2:33 PM by Tom Kachelman
Category 4 Odile approaching southern Baja California
Category 4 hurricane Odile approaching the southern Baja California peninsula. At 05:00 hr PDT the eye of Hurricane Odile was located about 360 km - 225 mi W of Manzanillo Mexico, about 460 km 285 mi SSE of the southern tip of Baja California.
Odile is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast before the hurricane nears the southern portion of Baja California sur.
Odile is moving toward the north-northwest near 24 km/h - 15 mph. A general motion toward the northwest with an additional increase in forward speed is expected tonight through Monday.
On the forecast track the core of Odile will remain offshore of the southwestern coast of ...
Posted Sep 14, 2014, 6:33 AM by Tom Kachelman
Affecting southern Baja California peninsula
At 05:00 hr PDT the center of Hurricane Norbert was about 205 km - 125 mi W of Cabo San Lucas Mexico, about 205 km - 130 mi SSE of Cabo San Lazaro Mexico. Norbert is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 km/h - 8 mph. A turn toward the northwest is expected later today and this general motion should continue through Saturday. On the forecast track the center of the hurricane will continue to move nearly parallel to and just offshore of the Pacific coast of the southern Baja California peninsula through Saturday.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro
A Tropical Storm Warning is in ...
Posted Sep 5, 2014, 7:25 AM by Tom Kachelman
Tropical Storm warning in effect for La Paz
Norbert 395 km SSE of the southern tip of Baja California.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for La Paz to Santa Fe Mexico
A tropical storm Watch is in effect for north of Santa Fe northward to Cabo San Lazaro Mexico
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 km/h - 8 mph and this general motion should continue today with a turn toward the northwest expected on Thursday.
On the forecast track the center of Norbert is expected to approach the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 95 km ...
Posted Sep 3, 2014, 5:59 AM by Tom Kachelman
Tropical Storm Norbert
Tropical Storm Norbert, the fourteenth named storm of a busy eastern Pacific hurricane season, has formed off the Mexican Pacific coast and may strengthen into a hurricane. Unlike the most recent trio of Karina, Lowell, and Marie, Tropical Storm Norbert will not simply be an "out-to-sea" wave generator.
While Norbert's center may never make landfall, it is expected to creep very slowly to the northwest over the next several days, remaining close enough to parts of southwest Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula to produce some high surf and rip currents and locally heavy rain.
At 17:00hr PDT the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was about 230 km - 145 mi W of Manzanillo Mexico, about 570 ...
Posted Sep 2, 2014, 7:18 PM by Tom Kachelman
Hurricane Amanda unexpectedly re-strengthens in the Pacific off Mexico's coast way south of Baja
Hurricane Amanda unexpectedly re-strengthens in the Pacific off Mexico's coast. Hurricane Amanda has unexpectedly regained some strength far off Mexico's Pacific coast but is not a threat to land.
The hurricane's maximum sustained winds early Tuesday had increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h), making it a Category 3 storm.
But the U.S. National Hurricane Center says weakening is expected to resume and Amanda should become a tropical storm by late Wednesday.
The hurricane is centered about 620 miles (995 kilometers) south-southwest of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California peninsula and is moving north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Posted May 27, 2014, 5:06 AM by Tom Kachelman
Hurricane Amanda remains a strong category 4 storm
Hurricane Amanda has rapidly gained force far off of Mexico's Pacific coast and was Sunday the strongest May hurricane on record for the Eastern Pacific, with sustained winds of up to 155 mph (250 kph).
Amanda has not changed much during the last several hours.
The eye of the hurricane, although slightly ragged in appearance at times, remains evident with a ring of cold cloud tops surrounding the center.
Amanda remains a powerful Category 4 storm of Mexico's Pacific coast.
However, according to the last forecast at 02:00hr PST is hurricane expected to weaken at a rapid pace beginning later today.
This is due to the combined influences of southerly to southwesterly shear, dry air intrusion, and ...
Posted May 26, 2014, 5:49 AM by Tom Kachelman
Near-normal or above-normal 2014 Eastern Pacific hurricane season expected
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center announced that a near-normal or above-normal hurricane season is likely for the Eastern Pacific this year. The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 10 percent chance of a below normal season.
Seasonal hurricane forecasters are calling for a 70 percent chance of 14 to 20 named storms, which includes 7 to 11 hurricanes, of which 3 to 6 are expected to become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).
An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season produces 15 named storms, with eight becoming hurricanes and four becoming major hurricanes.
Posted May 26, 2014, 4:38 AM by Tom Kachelman
Tropical Storm Sonia
Sonia a little stronger. Expected to turn north-northeastward very soon. At 07:00hr PST the center of Tropical Storm Sonia was located near latitude 19.9 north,longitude 109.8 west. Sonia is moving toward the north near 15 km/h.
This is about 335km / 205mi S of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula and about 595km / 370mi SSW of Culiacan Mexico
A turn toward the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin by this afternoon or evening.
On the forecast track the center of the cyclone will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula later today and tonight and approach the coast of Mainland Mexico within the ...
Posted May 26, 2014, 3:36 AM by Tom Kachelman
Tropical Storm Octave
At 200 PM PDT the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located near latitude 19.2 north, longitude 112.7 west.
That is about 115 mi 185 km WNW of Socorro island and about 315 mi/505 km SW of the southern tip of Baja California.
Maximum sustained winds...65 mph...100 km/h
Octave is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph...20 km/h...and this general motion is expected to continue today. A gradual turn toward the north is forecast to occur on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph...100 km/h... with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible through tonight...with gradual weakening forecast to begin on Monday.
Posted Oct 13, 2013, 5:52 PM by Tom Kachelman
Tropical depression Manuel forecast to strike as a tropical storm at 19 September
Tropical depression Manuel is forecast to strike Mexico as a tropical storm at about 00:00 GMT on 19 September. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 23.9 N, 109.0 W.
Manuel is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 64 km/h (40 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.
At 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression Manuel was located near latitude 23.0 north...longitude 107.7 west, about 85 mi...135 km W of Mazatlan Mexico and about 140 mi...225 km E of Cabo San Lucas ...
Posted Sep 17, 2013, 10:50 PM by Tom Kachelman
Lorena approaching Baja California
Lorena is approaching Baja California Sur. At 5:00hr PDT the location of tropical storm "Lorena" was 21.9n 108.9w, about 155km / 95mi SE of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Present movement NW or 315 degrees at 22 km/h.
The storm with so far maximum sustained winds early Friday near 65km/h (40mi) with little change in strength expected until landfall, which is expected either late Friday or on Saturday in southern Baja California.
The tropical storm is expected to continue toward the northwest at a slower rate of speed over the next two days. The center of Lorena is anticipated to be near or over the southern Baja California peninsula later today.
The main impact from Lorena appears ...
Posted Sep 6, 2013, 6:44 AM by Tom Kachelman
Lorena en route
A tropical storm has formed in the eastern Pacific Ocean, off the coast of Mexico. The U.S. Hurricane Center in Miami said Thursday afternoon that tropical storm Lorena is located 394 kilometers west of Manzanillo, Mexico. It has maximum sustained winds of 64 km/h and is moving to the northwest at 19 km/h.
At 200 pm pdt...2100 utc...the center of tropical storm Lorena was located near latitude 19.2 north...longitude 106.6 west, about 335 MI...535 km SE of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico
Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph...19 km/h.
This general motion is expected during the next couple of days. on the forecast track...Lorena will be ...
Posted Sep 5, 2013, 4:35 PM by Weather Man
Tropical storm conditions
Tropical Storm Ivo conditions occurring over the southern Baja California peninsula. At 2:00hr PDT information shows the location 22.4n - 112.7w about 295 km W of Cabo San Lucas Mexico maximum sustained winds 75 km/h present movement: NNW or 345 degrees at 22 km/h minimum central pressure 998 mb.
With the center of Tropical Storm Ivo located near latitude 22.4 north, longitude 112.7 west.
Ivo is moving toward the north-northwest near 22 km/h - 14mph.
This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.
On the forecast track the center of Ivo will move parallel to the West Coast of the Baja California peninsula.
Posted Aug 24, 2013, 4:04 AM by Weather Man
Tropical Storm Ivo ('EE-voh) has re-formed in the eastern Pacific, prompting warnings and watches for portions of Mexico's Baja California peninsula. The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Friday that Ivo was located about 265 miles (425 kilometers) southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. It had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 kph) and was moving north about 6 mph (9 kph).
The Mexican government has issued a tropical storm warning for the Pacific coast of the peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Lucas, and a tropical storm watch for the coast from north of Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia.
The Hurricane Center said Ivo could strengthen Friday night and Saturday, then weaken again Saturday ...
Posted Aug 24, 2013, 3:56 AM by Weather Man
Tropical Storm Erick edging closer to southern Baja California
Erik was at 5:00 hr with the center of the Tropical Storm located near latitude 21.7 north...longitude 109.7 west.
That is about about 135 km/85 mi S of the southern tip of Baja California
maximum with sustained winds of 50 mph-85 km/h. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph-15 km/h.
A northwestward motion is expected over the next day or so with a turn toward the west-northwest expected on Wednesday.
On the forecast track the center of Erick should pass just south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula later this morning.
Wind: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions
of the warning area ...
Posted Aug 23, 2013, 3:50 PM by Tom Kachelman
Tropical Storm Erick to become hurricane
Tropical Storm Erick approaches Mexico's Pacific coast, strengthens and expected to become a hurricane.
Tropical Storm Erick kicked out increasingly strong wind gusts as it approached Mexico's Pacific coast port of Lazaro Cardenas on Friday, and a large swath of the country braced for drenching rain.
The Mexican government extended tropical storm warnings to cover the area from the Pacific tourist resort of Zihuatanejo in Guerrero state to Cabo Corrientes in Jalisco state.
The area encompasses Lazaro Cardenas and Manzanillo, the country's top cargo shipping hub.
At 2:00 hr PDT the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located near latitude 17.3 north/longitude 103.6 west, about 205 km/ 125 mi SSE of Manzanillo Mexico ...
Posted Jul 8, 2013, 8:08 AM by Weather Man