Weather Reporting

Baja Weather  2.0 - next generation. We serve you the latest Baja Weather forecasts since 2007 under the domain name "www.baja-weather.com" and before that another 3 years as  sub-domain at a Cabo San Lucas website. It was time for a change.
The optical differences on our new system are not to much, the website is now adjusted for usage with current smart-phones.
We transferred most of the post and reports of the last 5 years over to the new system here.
All videos published before can be viewed at the

Baja Weather YouTube clicking this link

Feel free to approach us with any critique or suggestions to improve Baja Weather.

Major Hurricane Odile expected to affect southern Baja California

posted Sep 14, 2014, 2:29 PM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated Sep 14, 2014, 2:33 PM ]

Hurricane Warnings are flying for Mexicos Baja Peninsula as dangerous Category 4 Hurricane Odile approaches. Odile put on an impressive burst of rapid intensification
At 14:00hr PDT the center of the eye of major Hurricane Odile was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft about 225 km - 140 mi SSE of the southern tip of Baja California. Odile is moving toward the north-northwest near 24 km/h - 15 mph and this general motion is expected during the next day or two.
On the forecast track the core of Odile will pass near or over the southern portion of Baja California Sur tonight and Monday.
Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 205 km/h - 125 mph with higher gusts. Odile is a strong category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.
Some slight strengthening is possible overnight and Odile could become a category four hurricane again before it approaches southern Baja California sur.
All preparedness actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion

Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by Monday night and continue into Tuesday.
Odile is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 85 km - 50 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 295 km - 185 miles.
At 200 PM PDT 2100 UTC the center of the eye of major Hurricane Odile was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 21.1 north - longitude 108.9 west

 

Category 4 Odile approaching southern Baja California

posted Sep 14, 2014, 6:18 AM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated Sep 14, 2014, 6:33 AM ]

Odile is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.  Some additional strengthening is forecast before the hurricane nears the southern portion of Baja California sur.
Category 4 hurricane Odile approaching the southern Baja California peninsula. At 05:00 hr PDT the eye of Hurricane Odile was located about 360 km - 225 mi W of Manzanillo Mexico, about 460 km 285 mi SSE of the southern tip of Baja California.
Odile is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast before the hurricane nears the southern portion of Baja California sur.
Odile is moving toward the north-northwest near 24 km/h - 15 mph. A general motion toward the northwest with an additional increase in forward speed is expected tonight through Monday.
On the forecast track the core of Odile will remain offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico this morning and then pass near or over the southern portion of Baja California sur tonight and Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 215 km/h - 135 mph with higher gusts.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area beginning by tonight and are possible in the Hurricane Watch area late Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward across Baja California sur in advance of the hurricane conditions later today.

Hurricane Category 4 Odile
Point forecast Sunday 22:00 hr

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area by Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring along the coast of Mainland Mexico in the warning area.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for:
  • Baja California sur from Puerto San Andresito to La Paz
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for:
  • The West Coast of Baja California sur from north of Puerto San Andresito to Punta Eugenia.
  • The East Coast of Baja California sur from north of La Paz to Loreto.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:
  • The coast of Mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes.
  • The East Coast of Baja California sur from north of La Paz to Mulege.
  • The West Coast of Baja California sur from north of Puerto San Andresito to Punta Abreojos.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for:
  • The East Coast of the Baja California sur from north of Mulege to Santa Rosalia.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Baja California sur from Puerto San Andresito to La Paz

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

 


Affecting southern Baja California peninsula

posted Sep 5, 2014, 7:22 AM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated Sep 5, 2014, 7:25 AM ]

Norbert is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over the southern part of the Baja California peninsula with isolated amounts near 10 inches through Saturday
At 05:00 hr PDT the center of Hurricane Norbert was about 205 km - 125 mi W of Cabo San Lucas Mexico, about 205 km - 130 mi SSE of Cabo San Lazaro Mexico. Norbert is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 km/h - 8 mph. A turn toward the northwest is expected later today and this general motion should continue through Saturday. On the forecast track the center of the hurricane will continue to move nearly parallel to and just offshore of the Pacific coast of the southern Baja California peninsula through Saturday.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for San Evaristo to south of Santa Fe AND north of Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Eugenia

A tropical storm watch is in effect for north of San Evaristo to Loreto

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area...in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.
Norbert has changed little in organization during the past several hours


 
~~~

Tropical Storm warning in effect for La Paz

posted Sep 3, 2014, 5:57 AM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated Sep 3, 2014, 5:59 AM ]

Tropical storm Norbert is forecast to strike Mexico as a hurricane at about 06:00 GMT on 6 September. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 24.0 N, 112.7 W. Norbert is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 138 km/h (86 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher
Norbert 395 km SSE of the southern tip of Baja California.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for  La Paz to Santa Fe Mexico
A tropical storm Watch is in effect for north of Santa Fe northward to Cabo San Lazaro Mexico
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Norbert is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 km/h - 8 mph and this general motion should continue today with a turn toward the northwest expected on Thursday.
On the forecast track the center of Norbert is expected to approach the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 95 km/h - 60 mph with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Norbert is expected to reach hurricane strength by Thursday.
Large swells will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico today and Thursday and produce dangerous surf conditions and rip currents.
Large swells will gradually spread northward into the southern Gulf of California and affect the southern portions of Baja California Sur by Thursday.

Tropical Storm Dolly drenched Mexico's Gulf coast before moving inland over mountains and weakening to tropical depression on Wednesday
 

Tropical Storm Norbert

posted Sep 2, 2014, 7:11 PM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated Sep 2, 2014, 7:18 PM ]

Tropical Storm Norbert Forms Off Southwest Mexico; Tropical Storm Watch for Baja California
Tropical Storm Norbert, the fourteenth named storm of a busy eastern Pacific hurricane season, has formed off the Mexican Pacific coast and may strengthen into a hurricane. Unlike the most recent trio of Karina, Lowell, and Marie, Tropical Storm Norbert will not simply be an "out-to-sea" wave generator.
While Norbert's center may never make landfall, it is expected to creep very slowly to the northwest over the next several days, remaining close enough to parts of southwest Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula to produce some high surf and rip currents and locally heavy rain.
At 17:00hr PDT the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was about 230 km - 145 mi W of Manzanillo Mexico, about 570 km - 355 mi se of the southern tip of Baja California.
Norbert getting better organized as it moves northward. A tropical storm watch is in effect for La Paz to Santa Fe, Mexico.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Norbert Tropical Storem map


Norbert is forecast to turn toward the northwest overnight and then turn toward the west-northwest by late Wednesday into Thursday. On the forecast track Norbert should begin moving away from the coast of southwestern Mexico overnight and approach the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 km/h with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area please monitor products issued by your National meteorological service

 
AcuRite Professional Weather Station uses patented Self-Calibrating Technology to provide your personal forecast of 12 to 24 hour weather conditions

Hurricane Amanda unexpectedly re-strengthens in the Pacific off Mexico's coast way south of Baja

posted May 27, 2014, 4:46 AM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated May 27, 2014, 5:06 AM ]

Hurricane Amanda has unexpectedly regained some strength far off Mexico's Pacific coast but is not a threat to land.  The hurricane's maximum sustained winds early Tuesday had increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h), making it a Category 3 storm
Hurricane Amanda unexpectedly re-strengthens in the Pacific off Mexico's coast. Hurricane Amanda has unexpectedly regained some strength far off Mexico's Pacific coast but is not a threat to land.

The hurricane's maximum sustained winds early Tuesday had increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h), making it a Category 3 storm.

But the U.S. National Hurricane Center says weakening is expected to resume and Amanda should become a tropical storm by late Wednesday.

The hurricane is centered about 620 miles (995 kilometers) south-southwest of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California peninsula and is moving north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

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The hurricane AMANDA is centered about 620 miles (995 kilometers) south-southwest of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California peninsula and is moving north-northwest near 5 mph

 
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Hurricane Amanda remains a strong category 4 storm

posted May 26, 2014, 5:36 AM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated May 26, 2014, 5:49 AM ]

The hurricane Amanda is expected to weaken at a rapid pace beginning later today
Hurricane Amanda has rapidly gained force far off of Mexico's Pacific coast and was Sunday the strongest May hurricane on record for the Eastern Pacific, with sustained winds of up to 155 mph (250 kph).
Amanda has not changed much during the last several hours.
The eye of the hurricane, although slightly ragged in appearance at times, remains evident with a ring of cold cloud tops surrounding the center.
Amanda remains a powerful Category 4 storm of Mexico's Pacific coast.
However, according to the last forecast at 02:00hr PST is hurricane expected to weaken at a rapid pace beginning later today.
This is  due to the combined influences of southerly to southwesterly shear, dry air intrusion, and decreasing sea surface temperatures.
The hurricane's maximum sustained winds early Monday are near 140 mph (220 km/h). The U.S. National Hurricane Center says rapid weakening is expected to continue over the next two days.
The hurricane was centered about 685 miles (1,105 kilometers) south of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California peninsula and is moving north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) at the time of that forecast.
While Amanda was forecast to stay out to sea, Mexico's National Meteorological Service said rains associated with the storm were likely to drench much of western and central Mexico.


Hurricane Amanda

Beyond a couple of days, the weakening tropical cyclone is expected to drift northeastward or become stationary when it is forecast to be more influenced by the low-level steering flow.
 
 WestMarine.com 

Near-normal or above-normal 2014 Eastern Pacific hurricane season expected

posted May 26, 2014, 4:01 AM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated May 26, 2014, 4:38 AM ]

Satellite image shows Hurricane Manuel near peak intensity on Sept. 19, 2013, before its second landfall on western Mexico
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center announced that a near-normal or above-normal hurricane season is likely for the Eastern Pacific this year. The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 10 percent chance of a below normal season.
Seasonal hurricane forecasters are calling for a 70 percent chance of 14 to 20 named storms, which includes 7 to 11 hurricanes, of which 3 to 6 are expected to become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).
An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season produces 15 named storms, with eight becoming hurricanes and four becoming major hurricanes.
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 through Nov. 30, with peak activity from July through September.
“The key climate factor behind the outlook is the likely development of El Niño this summer. El Niño decreases the vertical wind shear over the eastern tropical Pacific, favoring more and stronger tropical storms and hurricanes,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, part of the U.S. National Weather Service.
“The eastern Pacific has been in an era of low activity for hurricanes since 1995, but this pattern will be offset in 2014 by the impacts of El Niño.”
Climate signals point to a potentially active hurricane season for the Eastern Pacific this year, making preparedness more important than ever.
The public is encouraged to take time now to learn their personal risk, build an emergency kit and develop a contingency plan in to ensure their resiliency in the face of wind, rain, flooding and storm surge that a hurricane may bring.

Hurricane Manuel near peak before second landfall on western Mexico 2013


The outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal hurricane activity. It does not predict whether, where, or when any of these storms may hit land. Eastern Pacific tropical storms and hurricanes most often track westward over open waters, sometimes reaching Hawaii. However, some occasionally head toward the northeast and may bring rainfall to the arid southwestern United States during the summer or fall. Also, on average, two to three storms per season affect western Mexico or Central America.
Content credits: www.noaa.gov - Image credits NOAA/NASA
 

Tropical Storm Sonia

posted Nov 3, 2013, 7:57 AM by Weather Man   [ updated May 26, 2014, 3:36 AM by Tom Kachelman ]

Tropical Storm Sonia Baja California Sur Peninsula Mexico
Sonia a little stronger. Expected to turn north-northeastward very soon. At 07:00hr PST the center of Tropical Storm Sonia was located near latitude 19.9 north,longitude 109.8 west. Sonia is moving toward the north near 15 km/h.
This is about 335km / 205mi S of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula and about 595km / 370mi SSW of Culiacan Mexico
A turn toward the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin by this afternoon or evening.
On the forecast track the center of the cyclone will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula later today and tonight and approach the coast of Mainland Mexico within the warning area by early Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near .65 km/h - 40m ph with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before Sonia makes landfall on Monday. Rapid weakening will begin after Sonia makes landfall.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 130 km / 80 miles mainly to the northwest of the center.

Sonia Tropical Storm
Expedia.com
 

Tropical Storm Octave

posted Oct 13, 2013, 5:51 PM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated Oct 13, 2013, 5:52 PM ]

Tropical Storm Octave
At 200 PM PDT the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located near latitude 19.2 north, longitude 112.7 west.
That is about 115 mi 185 km WNW of Socorro island and about 315 mi/505 km SW of the southern tip of Baja California.
Maximum sustained winds...65 mph...100 km/h Octave is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph...20 km/h...and this general motion is expected to continue today. A gradual turn toward the north is forecast to occur on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph...100 km/h... with higher gusts.
Some fluctuations in intensity are possible through tonight...with gradual weakening forecast to begin on Monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles...75 km from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb...29.38 inches.
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.

Tropical Storm Octave
Tropical Storm Octave

 

TomTom GO Confidently

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