Weather Reporting

Baja Weather  2.0 - next generation. We serve you the latest Baja Weather forecasts since 2007 under the domain name "www.baja-weather.com" and before that another 3 years as  sub-domain at a Cabo San Lucas website. It was time for a change.
The optical differences on our new system are not to much, the website is now adjusted for usage with current smart-phones.
We transferred most of the post and reports of the last 5 years over to the new system here.
All videos published before can be viewed at the

Baja Weather YouTube clicking this link

Feel free to approach us with any critique or suggestions to improve Baja Weather.

Tropical Storm Sonia

posted Nov 3, 2013, 7:57 AM by Weather Man   [ updated Nov 3, 2013, 8:00 AM ]

Tropical Storm Sonia Baja California Sur Peninsula Mexico
Sonia a little stronger. Expected to turn north-northeastward very soon. At 07:00hr PST the center of Tropical Storm Sonia was located near latitude 19.9 north,longitude 109.8 west. Sonia is moving toward the north near 15 km/h.
This is about 335km / 205mi S of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula and about 595km / 370mi SSW of Culiacan Mexico
A turn toward the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin by this afternoon or evening.
On the forecast track the center of the cyclone will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula later today and tonight and approach the coast of Mainland Mexico within the warning area by early Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near .65 km/h - 40m ph with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before Sonia makes landfall on Monday. Rapid weakening will begin after Sonia makes landfall.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 130 km / 80 miles mainly to the northwest of the center.

Sonia Tropical Storm
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Tropical Storm Octave

posted Oct 13, 2013, 5:51 PM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated Oct 13, 2013, 5:52 PM ]

Tropical Storm Octave
At 200 PM PDT the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located near latitude 19.2 north, longitude 112.7 west.
That is about 115 mi 185 km WNW of Socorro island and about 315 mi/505 km SW of the southern tip of Baja California.
Maximum sustained winds...65 mph...100 km/h Octave is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph...20 km/h...and this general motion is expected to continue today. A gradual turn toward the north is forecast to occur on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph...100 km/h... with higher gusts.
Some fluctuations in intensity are possible through tonight...with gradual weakening forecast to begin on Monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles...75 km from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb...29.38 inches.
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.

Tropical Storm Octave
Tropical Storm Octave

 

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Tropical depression Manuel forecast to strike as a tropical storm at 19 September

posted Sep 17, 2013, 10:00 PM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated Sep 17, 2013, 10:50 PM ]

Tropical Storm Manuel
Tropical depression Manuel is forecast to strike Mexico as a tropical storm at about 00:00 GMT on 19 September. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 23.9 N, 109.0 W.
Manuel is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 64 km/h (40 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.
At 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression Manuel was located near latitude 23.0 north...longitude 107.7 west, about 85 mi...135 km W of Mazatlan Mexico and about 140 mi...225 km E of Cabo San Lucas Mexico.
The depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph...9 km/h...and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or two.

Tropical Depression Manuel

Rainfall: Manuel is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain over portions of the Mexican states of sinaloa and nayarit. It is also expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula...with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. These rains are could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Center of Tropical Depression Manuel

Wind: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the west-central coast of Mexico within the watch area during the next day or so. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the southern Baja California peninsula within the watch area by late Wednesday night.
 

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Lorena approaching Baja California

posted Sep 6, 2013, 6:36 AM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated Sep 6, 2013, 6:44 AM ]

Lorena is approaching Baja California Sur. At 5:00hr PDT the location of tropical storm "Lorena" was 21.9n 108.9w, about 155km / 95mi SE of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Present movement NW or 315 degrees at 22 km/h.
The storm with so far maximum sustained winds early Friday near 65km/h (40mi) with little change in strength expected until landfall, which is expected either late Friday or on Saturday in southern Baja California.
The tropical storm is expected to continue toward the northwest at a slower rate of speed over the next two days. The center of Lorena is anticipated to be near or over the southern Baja California peninsula later today.
The main impact from Lorena appears to be the threat of locally heavy rainfall over parts of the southern Baja peninsula, where 3 to 6 inches of rain is possible (locally higher amounts possible). This rainfall could trigger life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
  • Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Baja California Sur from Agua Blanca to Buenavista
  • Tropical storm watch is in effect for Baja California sur north of Agua Blanca to Santa Fe

Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Lorena does have some opportunity to intensify before interacting with the southern Baja California peninsula...but time is running short. The cyclone is currently embedded in a moderate southwesterly vertical shear and moist environment and is traversing SSTs of 29c. However in about 24 hours the circulation of Lorena will be impacted by Baja California and restrict any further intensification.

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Lorena en route

posted Sep 5, 2013, 4:32 PM by Weather Man   [ updated Sep 5, 2013, 4:35 PM ]

Storm Lorena
A tropical storm has formed in the eastern Pacific Ocean, off the coast of Mexico. The U.S. Hurricane Center in Miami said Thursday afternoon that tropical storm Lorena is located 394 kilometers west of Manzanillo, Mexico. It has maximum sustained winds of 64 km/h and is moving to the northwest at 19 km/h.
At 200 pm pdt...2100 utc...the center of tropical storm Lorena was located near latitude 19.2 north...longitude 106.6 west, about 335 MI...535 km SE of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico
Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph...19 km/h.
This general motion is expected during the next couple of days. on the forecast track...Lorena will be nearing the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula early on Saturday.
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph...65 km/h...with higher gusts. some increase in strength is possible over the next day or so.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...northeast of the center.

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Tropical storm conditions

posted Aug 24, 2013, 3:59 AM by Weather Man   [ updated Aug 24, 2013, 4:04 AM ]

Tropical Storm Ivo
Tropical Storm Ivo conditions occurring over the southern Baja California peninsula. At 2:00hr PDT information shows the location 22.4n - 112.7w about 295 km W of Cabo San Lucas Mexico maximum sustained winds 75 km/h present movement: NNW or 345 degrees at 22 km/h minimum central pressure 998 mb.
With the center of Tropical Storm Ivo located near latitude 22.4 north, longitude 112.7 west.
Ivo is moving toward the north-northwest near 22 km/h - 14mph.
This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.
On the forecast track the center of Ivo will move parallel to the West Coast of the Baja California peninsula.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 km/h - 45 mph with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected to begin by tonight.
Ivo is a large cyclone...and the tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 km - 195 miles from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb.

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Tropical-Storm-Ivo

posted Aug 23, 2013, 3:51 PM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated Aug 24, 2013, 3:56 AM by Weather Man ]

Tropical Storm Ivo
Tropical Storm Ivo ('EE-voh) has re-formed in the eastern Pacific, prompting warnings and watches for portions of Mexico's Baja California peninsula. The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Friday that Ivo was located about 265 miles (425 kilometers) southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. It had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 kph) and was moving north about 6 mph (9 kph). The Mexican government has issued a tropical storm warning for the Pacific coast of the peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Lucas, and a tropical storm watch for the coast from north of Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia.
The Hurricane Center said Ivo could strengthen Friday night and Saturday, then weaken again Saturday night and Sunday.
Ivo's location, 19.5n 111.8w about 265 mi/425 km ssw of Cabo San Lucas, BCS, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds...45 mph...75 km/h, present movement...n or 360 degrees at 6 mph...9 km/h, minimum central pressure...1000 mb...29.53 inches
The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm warning for the pacific coast of the baja california peninsula from punta abreojos southward to cabo san lucas...and for the gulf of California coast of the baja California peninsula from loreto southward to cabo san lucas.



A tropical storm warning is in effect for:
* pacific coast of the baja california peninsula from punta abreojos southward to cabo san lucas
* the gulf of california coast of the baja california peninsula from loreto southward to cabo san lucas



A tropical storm watch is in effect for:
* pacific coast of the baja california peninsula north of punta abreojos to punta eugenia
a tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area...in this case within 12 to 24 hours.
a tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours. interests elsewhere in the baja california peninsula should monitor the progress of ivo.
For storm information specific to your area please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
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Tropical Storm Erick edging closer to southern Baja California

posted Jul 8, 2013, 8:10 AM by Weather Man   [ updated Aug 23, 2013, 3:50 PM by Tom Kachelman ]

Erik was at 5:00 hr with the center of the Tropical Storm located near latitude 21.7 north...longitude 109.7 west.
That is about about 135 km/85 mi S of the southern tip of Baja California maximum with sustained winds of 50 mph-85 km/h. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph-15 km/h.
A northwestward motion is expected over the next day or so with a turn toward the west-northwest expected on Wednesday.
On the forecast track the center of Erick should pass just south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula later this morning.

Wind: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the warning area in Baja California sur within the next few hours.
Tropical Storm Erik

Rainfall: Erick is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the southern Baja California peninsula.
The map shows the accumulated precipitation along the cyclone's track. Yellow area is > 100mm; Red area is > 300mm; Blue area is > 500mm. The accumulated rainfall is calculated based on the Tropical Rainfall Potential of NOAA/NESDIS.

Surf
: Swells generated by Erick are affecting portions of the southern Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
 
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Tropical Storm Erick to become hurricane

posted Jul 6, 2013, 5:08 AM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated Jul 8, 2013, 8:08 AM by Weather Man ]

Hurricane Erik Mexico Pacific Coast
Tropical Storm Erick approaches Mexico's Pacific coast, strengthens and expected to become a hurricane.
Tropical Storm Erick kicked out increasingly strong wind gusts as it approached Mexico's Pacific coast port of Lazaro Cardenas on Friday, and a large swath of the country braced for drenching rain.
The Mexican government extended tropical storm warnings to cover the area from the Pacific tourist resort of Zihuatanejo in Guerrero state to Cabo Corrientes in Jalisco state.
The area encompasses Lazaro Cardenas and Manzanillo, the country's top cargo shipping hub.
At 2:00 hr PDT the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located near latitude 17.3 north/longitude 103.6 west, about 205 km/ 125 mi SSE of Manzanillo Mexico about 905 km/565 mi se of the southern tip of Baja California.
Erick is moving toward the northwest near 13 km/h- 8 mph.
A general northwest to west-northwest motion is expected over the next couple of days.

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On the forecast track the core of Erick should move parallel to but remain offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
However...any deviation to the right of the forecast track could bring the center near or over the Pacific coast of Mexico.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/h...with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected today and tonight...and Erick is forecast to become a hurricane during the next few hours.


 
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Hurricane Cosme

posted Jun 25, 2013, 10:56 AM by Weather Man   [ updated Jun 25, 2013, 11:05 AM ]

At 800 am PDT/1500 UTC the center of Hurricane Cosme was located near latitude 17.7 north/longitude 110.7 west.
About 585 km/365 mi S of Cabo San Lucas Mexico,
605 km/375 mi WSW of Cabo Corrientes Mexico.
Cosme is moving toward the northwest near 18 mph/30 km/h.
A gradual turn toward the west and a decrease in forward speed are expected during the next 48 hours.
On the forecast track the center of Cosme should pass near Socorro island later today.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph/120 km/h with higher gusts.
Some additional strengthening is possible today with weakening expected on Wednesday and Thursday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles/35 km from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles/280 km.
Socorro island recently reported a wind gust of 41 mph/67 km/h.

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