Weather Reporting

Baja Weather  2.0 - next generation. We serve you the latest Baja Weather forecasts since 2007 under the domain name "www.baja-weather.com" and before that another 3 years as  sub-domain at a Cabo San Lucas website. It was time for a change.
The optical differences on our new system are not to much, the website is now adjusted for usage with current smart-phones.
We transferred most of the post and reports of the last 5 years over to the new system here.
All videos published before can be viewed at the

Baja Weather YouTube clicking this link

Feel free to approach us with any critique or suggestions to improve Baja Weather.

Hurricane Amanda unexpectedly re-strengthens in the Pacific off Mexico's coast way south of Baja

posted May 27, 2014, 4:46 AM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated May 27, 2014, 5:06 AM ]

Hurricane Amanda has unexpectedly regained some strength far off Mexico's Pacific coast but is not a threat to land.  The hurricane's maximum sustained winds early Tuesday had increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h), making it a Category 3 storm
Hurricane Amanda unexpectedly re-strengthens in the Pacific off Mexico's coast. Hurricane Amanda has unexpectedly regained some strength far off Mexico's Pacific coast but is not a threat to land.

The hurricane's maximum sustained winds early Tuesday had increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h), making it a Category 3 storm.

But the U.S. National Hurricane Center says weakening is expected to resume and Amanda should become a tropical storm by late Wednesday.

The hurricane is centered about 620 miles (995 kilometers) south-southwest of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California peninsula and is moving north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

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The hurricane AMANDA is centered about 620 miles (995 kilometers) south-southwest of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California peninsula and is moving north-northwest near 5 mph

 
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Hurricane Amanda remains a strong category 4 storm

posted May 26, 2014, 5:36 AM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated May 26, 2014, 5:49 AM ]

The hurricane Amanda is expected to weaken at a rapid pace beginning later today
Hurricane Amanda has rapidly gained force far off of Mexico's Pacific coast and was Sunday the strongest May hurricane on record for the Eastern Pacific, with sustained winds of up to 155 mph (250 kph).
Amanda has not changed much during the last several hours.
The eye of the hurricane, although slightly ragged in appearance at times, remains evident with a ring of cold cloud tops surrounding the center.
Amanda remains a powerful Category 4 storm of Mexico's Pacific coast.
However, according to the last forecast at 02:00hr PST is hurricane expected to weaken at a rapid pace beginning later today.
This is  due to the combined influences of southerly to southwesterly shear, dry air intrusion, and decreasing sea surface temperatures.
The hurricane's maximum sustained winds early Monday are near 140 mph (220 km/h). The U.S. National Hurricane Center says rapid weakening is expected to continue over the next two days.
The hurricane was centered about 685 miles (1,105 kilometers) south of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California peninsula and is moving north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) at the time of that forecast.
While Amanda was forecast to stay out to sea, Mexico's National Meteorological Service said rains associated with the storm were likely to drench much of western and central Mexico.


Hurricane Amanda

Beyond a couple of days, the weakening tropical cyclone is expected to drift northeastward or become stationary when it is forecast to be more influenced by the low-level steering flow.
 
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Near-normal or above-normal 2014 Eastern Pacific hurricane season expected

posted May 26, 2014, 4:01 AM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated May 26, 2014, 4:38 AM ]

Satellite image shows Hurricane Manuel near peak intensity on Sept. 19, 2013, before its second landfall on western Mexico
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center announced that a near-normal or above-normal hurricane season is likely for the Eastern Pacific this year. The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 10 percent chance of a below normal season.
Seasonal hurricane forecasters are calling for a 70 percent chance of 14 to 20 named storms, which includes 7 to 11 hurricanes, of which 3 to 6 are expected to become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).
An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season produces 15 named storms, with eight becoming hurricanes and four becoming major hurricanes.
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 through Nov. 30, with peak activity from July through September.
“The key climate factor behind the outlook is the likely development of El Niño this summer. El Niño decreases the vertical wind shear over the eastern tropical Pacific, favoring more and stronger tropical storms and hurricanes,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, part of the U.S. National Weather Service.
“The eastern Pacific has been in an era of low activity for hurricanes since 1995, but this pattern will be offset in 2014 by the impacts of El Niño.”
Climate signals point to a potentially active hurricane season for the Eastern Pacific this year, making preparedness more important than ever.
The public is encouraged to take time now to learn their personal risk, build an emergency kit and develop a contingency plan in to ensure their resiliency in the face of wind, rain, flooding and storm surge that a hurricane may bring.

Hurricane Manuel near peak before second landfall on western Mexico 2013


The outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal hurricane activity. It does not predict whether, where, or when any of these storms may hit land. Eastern Pacific tropical storms and hurricanes most often track westward over open waters, sometimes reaching Hawaii. However, some occasionally head toward the northeast and may bring rainfall to the arid southwestern United States during the summer or fall. Also, on average, two to three storms per season affect western Mexico or Central America.
Content credits: www.noaa.gov - Image credits NOAA/NASA
 

Tropical Storm Sonia

posted Nov 3, 2013, 7:57 AM by Weather Man   [ updated May 26, 2014, 3:36 AM by Tom Kachelman ]

Tropical Storm Sonia Baja California Sur Peninsula Mexico
Sonia a little stronger. Expected to turn north-northeastward very soon. At 07:00hr PST the center of Tropical Storm Sonia was located near latitude 19.9 north,longitude 109.8 west. Sonia is moving toward the north near 15 km/h.
This is about 335km / 205mi S of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula and about 595km / 370mi SSW of Culiacan Mexico
A turn toward the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin by this afternoon or evening.
On the forecast track the center of the cyclone will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula later today and tonight and approach the coast of Mainland Mexico within the warning area by early Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near .65 km/h - 40m ph with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before Sonia makes landfall on Monday. Rapid weakening will begin after Sonia makes landfall.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 130 km / 80 miles mainly to the northwest of the center.

Sonia Tropical Storm
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Tropical Storm Octave

posted Oct 13, 2013, 5:51 PM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated Oct 13, 2013, 5:52 PM ]

Tropical Storm Octave
At 200 PM PDT the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located near latitude 19.2 north, longitude 112.7 west.
That is about 115 mi 185 km WNW of Socorro island and about 315 mi/505 km SW of the southern tip of Baja California.
Maximum sustained winds...65 mph...100 km/h Octave is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph...20 km/h...and this general motion is expected to continue today. A gradual turn toward the north is forecast to occur on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph...100 km/h... with higher gusts.
Some fluctuations in intensity are possible through tonight...with gradual weakening forecast to begin on Monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles...75 km from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb...29.38 inches.
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.

Tropical Storm Octave
Tropical Storm Octave

 

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Tropical depression Manuel forecast to strike as a tropical storm at 19 September

posted Sep 17, 2013, 10:00 PM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated Sep 17, 2013, 10:50 PM ]

Tropical Storm Manuel
Tropical depression Manuel is forecast to strike Mexico as a tropical storm at about 00:00 GMT on 19 September. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 23.9 N, 109.0 W.
Manuel is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 64 km/h (40 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.
At 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression Manuel was located near latitude 23.0 north...longitude 107.7 west, about 85 mi...135 km W of Mazatlan Mexico and about 140 mi...225 km E of Cabo San Lucas Mexico.
The depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph...9 km/h...and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or two.

Tropical Depression Manuel

Rainfall: Manuel is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain over portions of the Mexican states of sinaloa and nayarit. It is also expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula...with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. These rains are could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Center of Tropical Depression Manuel

Wind: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the west-central coast of Mexico within the watch area during the next day or so. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the southern Baja California peninsula within the watch area by late Wednesday night.
 

WestMarine.com
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Lorena approaching Baja California

posted Sep 6, 2013, 6:36 AM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated Sep 6, 2013, 6:44 AM ]

Lorena is approaching Baja California Sur. At 5:00hr PDT the location of tropical storm "Lorena" was 21.9n 108.9w, about 155km / 95mi SE of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Present movement NW or 315 degrees at 22 km/h.
The storm with so far maximum sustained winds early Friday near 65km/h (40mi) with little change in strength expected until landfall, which is expected either late Friday or on Saturday in southern Baja California.
The tropical storm is expected to continue toward the northwest at a slower rate of speed over the next two days. The center of Lorena is anticipated to be near or over the southern Baja California peninsula later today.
The main impact from Lorena appears to be the threat of locally heavy rainfall over parts of the southern Baja peninsula, where 3 to 6 inches of rain is possible (locally higher amounts possible). This rainfall could trigger life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
  • Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Baja California Sur from Agua Blanca to Buenavista
  • Tropical storm watch is in effect for Baja California sur north of Agua Blanca to Santa Fe

Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Lorena does have some opportunity to intensify before interacting with the southern Baja California peninsula...but time is running short. The cyclone is currently embedded in a moderate southwesterly vertical shear and moist environment and is traversing SSTs of 29c. However in about 24 hours the circulation of Lorena will be impacted by Baja California and restrict any further intensification.

WestMarine.com
 
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Lorena en route

posted Sep 5, 2013, 4:32 PM by Weather Man   [ updated Sep 5, 2013, 4:35 PM ]

Storm Lorena
A tropical storm has formed in the eastern Pacific Ocean, off the coast of Mexico. The U.S. Hurricane Center in Miami said Thursday afternoon that tropical storm Lorena is located 394 kilometers west of Manzanillo, Mexico. It has maximum sustained winds of 64 km/h and is moving to the northwest at 19 km/h.
At 200 pm pdt...2100 utc...the center of tropical storm Lorena was located near latitude 19.2 north...longitude 106.6 west, about 335 MI...535 km SE of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico
Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph...19 km/h.
This general motion is expected during the next couple of days. on the forecast track...Lorena will be nearing the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula early on Saturday.
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph...65 km/h...with higher gusts. some increase in strength is possible over the next day or so.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...northeast of the center.

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Tropical storm conditions

posted Aug 24, 2013, 3:59 AM by Weather Man   [ updated Aug 24, 2013, 4:04 AM ]

Tropical Storm Ivo
Tropical Storm Ivo conditions occurring over the southern Baja California peninsula. At 2:00hr PDT information shows the location 22.4n - 112.7w about 295 km W of Cabo San Lucas Mexico maximum sustained winds 75 km/h present movement: NNW or 345 degrees at 22 km/h minimum central pressure 998 mb.
With the center of Tropical Storm Ivo located near latitude 22.4 north, longitude 112.7 west.
Ivo is moving toward the north-northwest near 22 km/h - 14mph.
This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.
On the forecast track the center of Ivo will move parallel to the West Coast of the Baja California peninsula.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 km/h - 45 mph with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected to begin by tonight.
Ivo is a large cyclone...and the tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 km - 195 miles from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb.

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Tropical-Storm-Ivo

posted Aug 23, 2013, 3:51 PM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated Aug 24, 2013, 3:56 AM by Weather Man ]

Tropical Storm Ivo
Tropical Storm Ivo ('EE-voh) has re-formed in the eastern Pacific, prompting warnings and watches for portions of Mexico's Baja California peninsula. The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Friday that Ivo was located about 265 miles (425 kilometers) southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. It had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 kph) and was moving north about 6 mph (9 kph). The Mexican government has issued a tropical storm warning for the Pacific coast of the peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Lucas, and a tropical storm watch for the coast from north of Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia.
The Hurricane Center said Ivo could strengthen Friday night and Saturday, then weaken again Saturday night and Sunday.
Ivo's location, 19.5n 111.8w about 265 mi/425 km ssw of Cabo San Lucas, BCS, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds...45 mph...75 km/h, present movement...n or 360 degrees at 6 mph...9 km/h, minimum central pressure...1000 mb...29.53 inches
The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm warning for the pacific coast of the baja california peninsula from punta abreojos southward to cabo san lucas...and for the gulf of California coast of the baja California peninsula from loreto southward to cabo san lucas.



A tropical storm warning is in effect for:
* pacific coast of the baja california peninsula from punta abreojos southward to cabo san lucas
* the gulf of california coast of the baja california peninsula from loreto southward to cabo san lucas



A tropical storm watch is in effect for:
* pacific coast of the baja california peninsula north of punta abreojos to punta eugenia
a tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area...in this case within 12 to 24 hours.
a tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours. interests elsewhere in the baja california peninsula should monitor the progress of ivo.
For storm information specific to your area please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
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