Weather Reporting

Baja Weather  2.0 - next generation. We serve you the latest Baja Weather forecasts since 2007 under the domain name "www.baja-weather.com" and before that another 3 years as  sub-domain at a Cabo San Lucas website. It was time for a change.
The optical differences on our new system are not to much, the website is now adjusted for usage with current smart-phones.
We transferred most of the post and reports of the last 5 years over to the new system here.
All videos published before can be viewed at the

Baja Weather YouTube clicking this link

Feel free to approach us with any critique or suggestions to improve Baja Weather.

Vance still strong category 2 Hurricane

posted Nov 3, 2014, 10:00 PM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated Nov 3, 2014, 10:14 PM ]

Tropical Cyclone VANCE can have a low humanitarian impact based on the Maximum sustained wind speed and the affected population and their vulnerability
Vance still a strong category two hurricane. Tropical storm watch issued for portions of southwestern Mexico. At 19:00hr PST the center of Hurricane Vance was about 160 km 100 mi SSE of Socorro island and about 780 km - about 485 mi SW of Mazatlan Mexico with maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h. The present movement is NNE or 20 degrees at 20 km/h - 13 mph.
The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch from Mazatlan northward to Topolobampo Mexico. A tropical storm watch is in effect for:
  • Mazatlan northward to Topolobampo Mexico
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Vance.
Vance doesn't have much time left to try to peak as a major (Category 3 or higher) hurricane. If it does, it would be the ninth major hurricane of 2014 in the Eastern Pacific (10 if one counts Genevieve), and would break the eastern Pacific seasonal record for Category 3 or stronger hurricanes.
Given Vance's initially powerful winds, swells from Vance will churn up high surf and rip currents at Mexico's Pacific beaches, even as the storm itself loses steam before reaching land.
As Vance or its remnants approach Meixco and move onshore and tangle, very heavy rainfall may result, mainly Thursday and Friday.
Vance became a Category 1 hurricane Sunday morning, making it the 14th hurricane of 2014 within the Eastern Pacific basin
Vance passing just to the southeast of Socorro island

 


Vance a category 2 hurricane

posted Nov 3, 2014, 6:33 AM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated Nov 3, 2014, 6:46 AM ]

Hurricane Vance is expected to begin affecting portions of Baja California Sur Mexico in a day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
Vance a category 2 hurricane maintaining 165 km/h winds located near latitude 14.5 north - longitude 110.3 west (about 810 km/ 505 mi SW of Manzanillo Mexico)
Hurricane Vance is moving toward the northwest near 22 km/h - 14 mph and a turn toward the north is expected by tonight followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Tuesday.
Satellite images indicate that Vance is maintaining its intensity, with very cold-topped inner core convection.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 165 km/h - 105 mph with higher gusts.
Vance could strengthen a little more today but a weakening trend is expected to begin tonight with steady to rapid weakening forecast thereafter.
Swells generated by Vance are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast Baja California Sur in a day or two.
Satellite images indicate that Vance is maintaining its intensity

Another system, 96E, with disorganized showers and thunderstorms is located several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico and associated with a broad area of low pressure.

Swells generated by Vance are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur in a day or two

Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some gradual development of this system during the next day or two while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable on Wednesday and development after that time is not likely.
  • Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 

Hurricane - a natural disasters with far reaching consequences

posted Sep 22, 2014, 8:35 PM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated Sep 22, 2014, 8:36 PM ]

A hurricane is a form of tropical cyclone or severe tropical storm that occur in eastern Pacific Ocean,  Caribbean Sea, southern Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico
The term "hurricane" is derived from "Taino", a native american word which means evil spirit of the wind. In short hurricanes are engines of destruction and a huge hurricane can release energy equivalent to 10 atomic bombs per second.
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale defines hurricane strength by categories. A Category 1 storm is the weakest hurricane with winds having speed between 74-95 mph; a Category 5 hurricane is the strongest with winds greater than 155 mph.
Hurricanes are giant, spiraling tropical storms that can pack wind speeds of over 160 miles (257 kilometers) an hour and unleash more than 2.4 trillion gallons (9 trillion liters) of rain a day.
These same tropical storms are known as cyclones in the northern Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal, and as typhoons in the western Pacific Ocean.
Hurricanes begin as tropical disturbances in warm ocean waters with surface temperatures of at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit (26.5 degrees Celsius).


These low pressure systems are fed by energy from the warm seas. If a storm achieves wind speeds of 38 miles (61 kilometers) an hour, it becomes known as a tropical depression. A tropical depression becomes a tropical storm, and is given a name, when its sustained wind speeds top 39 miles (63 kilometers) an hour. When a storm’s sustained wind speeds reach 74 miles (119 kilometers) an hour it becomes a hurricane and earns a category rating of 1 to 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Hurricanes are enormous heat engines that generate energy on a staggering scale. They draw heat from warm, moist ocean air and release it through condensation of water vapor in thunderstorms.
Hurricanes spin around a low-pressure center known as the “eye.” Sinking air makes this 20- to 30-mile-wide (32- to 48-kilometer-wide) area notoriously calm. But the eye is surrounded by a circular “eye wall” that hosts the storm’s strongest winds and rain.
These storms bring destruction ashore in many different ways. When a hurricane makes landfall it often produces a devastating storm surge that can reach 20 feet (6 meters) high and extend nearly 100 miles (161 kilometers). Ninety percent of all hurricane deaths result from storm surges.
Interactiv graphic credits BBC
 
WestMarine.com

Polo to pass south of Baja Saturday

posted Sep 19, 2014, 5:43 AM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated Sep 19, 2014, 5:44 AM ]

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in southern Baja California on Saturday
Polo to pass south of the Baja California peninsula on Saturday. At 05:00 hr PDT the center of Tropical Storm Polo was about 470 km - 290 mi SSE of the southern tip of Baja California.
Interests elsewhere in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Polo.
A Tropical Storm Warning could be required for portions of the peninsula later today.
Polo is moving toward the northwest near 13 km/h - 8 mph and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected today.
A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Saturday.
On the forecast track the center will continue to move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico today and pass south of the Baja California peninsula on Saturday.
However any deviation to the north of the track could bring stronger winds to southern Baja California. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in southern Baja California on Saturday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 165 km - 105 miles from the center.
Polo, the sixteenth named storm of a busy eastern Pacific hurricane season, formed Tuesday several hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.
It became the season's eleventh hurricane on Wednesday.
Going forward, it remains uncertain how or if Polo will affect the Baja peninsula, which is still recovering from Hurricane Odile, the record-trying strongest hurricane to landfall in Baja California.
The current thinking is that building high pressure aloft over northern Mexico may help turn Polo toward the west-northwest, away from the southern Baja peninsula. Tropical storm conditions are possible in southern Baja California late Saturday and into Sunday.
Keep in mind, however, that the average forecast track error for eastern Pacific tropical cyclones 4 to 5 days in advance ranged from 144 to 191 miles in 2013.
Tropical Storm Polo is moving away from the southwestern Mexican coast, where Manzanillo reported a sustained wind of 29 mph with a gust to 40 mph Wednesday afternoon, while over 2 inches of rain fell at Ixtapa
While the core of the system is expected to stay offshore, blustery conditions and bands of rain will continue to lash the immediate coast of southwest Mexico for a bit longer. Additional rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches are expected

 


Hurricane Polo 800 km south of Baja moving north

posted Sep 18, 2014, 8:38 AM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated Sep 18, 2014, 8:40 AM ]

Tropical storm Polo became a hurricane off Mexico's Pacific coast on Wednesday night with maximum sustained winds of almost 75 miles per hour (120 kph) expected to strengthen
At 05:00 hr PDT the center of Hurricane Polo was located about 820 km - 510 mi SE of the southern tip of Baja California. Polo is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 km/h - 8 mph. A turn toward the northwest is expected later today with a northwestward motion continuing through Saturday.
On the forecast track Polo will move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico.
However any deviation to the north of the track could bring stronger winds to the coast.
The storm is close enough to the coast that a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of southwest Mexico.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 km/h - 75 mph with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible today and tonight. After that Polo is expected to weaken due to unfavourable upper-level winds. An Air Force reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate Polo later today.
Residents and stranded visitors in Baja California should continue to keep an eye on Hurricane Polo.
The outer bands of Hurricane Polo are currently bringing rain to parts of the southwestern Mexican coast.
Periods of strong winds, heavy rain, high surf and rip currents may eventually affect portions of the coast.
Rainfall amounts of 5-10 inches are expected with isolated totals of 15 inches possible near the coast of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.
The heavy rain brings the threat of flash flooding and mudslides. Hurricane Polo, the sixteenth named storm of a busy eastern Pacific hurricane season, formed Tuesday several hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.
It became the season's eleventh hurricane on Wednesday.
Polo strengthened from a tropical storm to a hurricane Wednesday evening after moving into favorable atmospheric conditions. Some additional strengthening is possible over the next day or so
The new hurricane, which was 290 kilometres south of the port of Manzanillo, came almost exactly one year after twin tropical storms battered Mexico on both coasts, killing 157 people, the majority in Guerrero

 

Polo nearly a hurricane

posted Sep 17, 2014, 3:42 PM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated Sep 17, 2014, 3:43 PM ]

Residents and stranded visitors in Baja California should continue to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Polo, which is approaching hurricane strength about 200 miles south of Manzanillo on the southwestern part of the mainland.
The Pacific coast of Mexico has a new hurricane threat to be concerned with - Tropical Storm Polo, which had intensified to 60 mph sustained winds 260 miles SSE of Manzanillo, Mexico at 11 am EDT Wednesday.
The models have come into increasing agreement that the core of  Polo will stay offshore, but the storm is close enough to the coast that a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Southwest Mexico.
At 14:00hr PDT the center of Tropical Storm Polo was located about 295 km - 185 mi SSE of Manzanillo Mexico about 265 km - 165 mi WSW of  Zihuatanejo Mexico maximum sustained winds 110 km/h - 70 mph.
Polo is the sort of thing which can produce high anxiety, with a new storm forming and tracking not far from one which just brought disaster.
The official forecast (which reflects the latest model guidance) is for the core to track solidly offshore of Cabo San Lucas. Then again, that was the case with Odile even with what was issued Saturday morning.
Residents and stranded visitors in Baja California should continue to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Polo, which is approaching hurricane strength about 200 miles south of Manzanillo on the southwestern part of the mainland
Polo has formed not far from where Odile did offshore of southern Mexico

 

Major Hurricane Odile expected to affect southern Baja California

posted Sep 14, 2014, 2:29 PM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated Sep 14, 2014, 2:33 PM ]

Hurricane Warnings are flying for Mexicos Baja Peninsula as dangerous Category 4 Hurricane Odile approaches. Odile put on an impressive burst of rapid intensification
At 14:00hr PDT the center of the eye of major Hurricane Odile was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft about 225 km - 140 mi SSE of the southern tip of Baja California. Odile is moving toward the north-northwest near 24 km/h - 15 mph and this general motion is expected during the next day or two.
On the forecast track the core of Odile will pass near or over the southern portion of Baja California Sur tonight and Monday.
Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 205 km/h - 125 mph with higher gusts. Odile is a strong category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.
Some slight strengthening is possible overnight and Odile could become a category four hurricane again before it approaches southern Baja California sur.
All preparedness actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion

Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by Monday night and continue into Tuesday.
Odile is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 85 km - 50 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 295 km - 185 miles.
At 200 PM PDT 2100 UTC the center of the eye of major Hurricane Odile was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 21.1 north - longitude 108.9 west

 

Category 4 Odile approaching southern Baja California

posted Sep 14, 2014, 6:18 AM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated Sep 14, 2014, 6:33 AM ]

Odile is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.  Some additional strengthening is forecast before the hurricane nears the southern portion of Baja California sur.
Category 4 hurricane Odile approaching the southern Baja California peninsula. At 05:00 hr PDT the eye of Hurricane Odile was located about 360 km - 225 mi W of Manzanillo Mexico, about 460 km 285 mi SSE of the southern tip of Baja California.
Odile is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast before the hurricane nears the southern portion of Baja California sur.
Odile is moving toward the north-northwest near 24 km/h - 15 mph. A general motion toward the northwest with an additional increase in forward speed is expected tonight through Monday.
On the forecast track the core of Odile will remain offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico this morning and then pass near or over the southern portion of Baja California sur tonight and Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 215 km/h - 135 mph with higher gusts.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area beginning by tonight and are possible in the Hurricane Watch area late Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward across Baja California sur in advance of the hurricane conditions later today.

Hurricane Category 4 Odile
Point forecast Sunday 22:00 hr

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area by Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring along the coast of Mainland Mexico in the warning area.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for:
  • Baja California sur from Puerto San Andresito to La Paz
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for:
  • The West Coast of Baja California sur from north of Puerto San Andresito to Punta Eugenia.
  • The East Coast of Baja California sur from north of La Paz to Loreto.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:
  • The coast of Mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes.
  • The East Coast of Baja California sur from north of La Paz to Mulege.
  • The West Coast of Baja California sur from north of Puerto San Andresito to Punta Abreojos.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for:
  • The East Coast of the Baja California sur from north of Mulege to Santa Rosalia.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Baja California sur from Puerto San Andresito to La Paz

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

 


Affecting southern Baja California peninsula

posted Sep 5, 2014, 7:22 AM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated Sep 5, 2014, 7:25 AM ]

Norbert is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over the southern part of the Baja California peninsula with isolated amounts near 10 inches through Saturday
At 05:00 hr PDT the center of Hurricane Norbert was about 205 km - 125 mi W of Cabo San Lucas Mexico, about 205 km - 130 mi SSE of Cabo San Lazaro Mexico. Norbert is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 km/h - 8 mph. A turn toward the northwest is expected later today and this general motion should continue through Saturday. On the forecast track the center of the hurricane will continue to move nearly parallel to and just offshore of the Pacific coast of the southern Baja California peninsula through Saturday.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for San Evaristo to south of Santa Fe AND north of Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Eugenia

A tropical storm watch is in effect for north of San Evaristo to Loreto

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area...in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.
Norbert has changed little in organization during the past several hours


 
~~~

Tropical Storm warning in effect for La Paz

posted Sep 3, 2014, 5:57 AM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated Sep 3, 2014, 5:59 AM ]

Tropical storm Norbert is forecast to strike Mexico as a hurricane at about 06:00 GMT on 6 September. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 24.0 N, 112.7 W. Norbert is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 138 km/h (86 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher
Norbert 395 km SSE of the southern tip of Baja California.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for  La Paz to Santa Fe Mexico
A tropical storm Watch is in effect for north of Santa Fe northward to Cabo San Lazaro Mexico
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Norbert is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 km/h - 8 mph and this general motion should continue today with a turn toward the northwest expected on Thursday.
On the forecast track the center of Norbert is expected to approach the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 95 km/h - 60 mph with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Norbert is expected to reach hurricane strength by Thursday.
Large swells will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico today and Thursday and produce dangerous surf conditions and rip currents.
Large swells will gradually spread northward into the southern Gulf of California and affect the southern portions of Baja California Sur by Thursday.

Tropical Storm Dolly drenched Mexico's Gulf coast before moving inland over mountains and weakening to tropical depression on Wednesday
 

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