Dolores moving toward the northwest

posted Jul 11, 2012, 3:06 PM by Tom Kachelman
Tropical Storm Dolores moving toward the northwest a little bit faster with little change in strength. at 2:00 am PDTthe center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located near latitude 18.2 north, longitude 119.1 west or about 680 miles - 1090 km west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Dolores is moving toward the northwest near 18 mph - 30 km/hr. This general motion with a turn to the west-northwest is expected today and Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph - 85 km/hr with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today but a gradual weakening should begin on Friday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles - 280 km from the center.

the low level-circulation continues to be elongated from northwest to southeast and in fact the latest Quikscat shows a disorganized surface circulation which is difficult to find even using the ambiguities. However there is a vigorous mid-level circulation but the convection is vanishing at this time. Satellite estimates are assuming that the low-level center is collocated with the mid-level and the T-numbers are 3.0 on the Dvorak scale same as 00 UTC. The initial intensity is kept at 45 knots but this could be generous given the current lack of organization. Because a portion of the circulation is already over cooler water. No significant change in intensity is forecast for today. Dolores is forecast to weaken as the entire circulation moves over cooler waters and the shear increases.

Because of the uncertainty in the location of the center the initial motion is also uncertain. Dolores appears to be moving toward the northwest a little bit faster around the southwestern periphery of a strong high pressure system centered over the western United States. This general motion should continue today with a gradual turn to the west as Dolores weakens to a remnant low. Models are in good agreement for the next 3 days keeping the cyclone or the low on a northwest to west-northwest track but the model spread is quite larger thereafter.

Published on: Jul 16, 2009 @ 6:52