Image overlay shows with the darker brown/orange the computer model LEAR initialized Minday 8:00am EDT and with the white/purple BAMD also 8:00am. According to them models the storm would cross the Baja north of La Paz or near Loreto. The points indicate 12 hour time difference. Again: this are just computer models and indicate in now way how the system is going to develop.
Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts Invest 97 2:00pm, Monday Sept. 14 2009. A broad area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo Mexico continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. The circulation does not appear to be well-defined at this time, however environmental conditions are favorable for development of this low as it moves generally west-northwestward during the next day or two. There is a medium chance - 30 to 50 percent - of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Original published Sep 14, 2009 @ 12:10
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