Jimena has weakened a little more

posted Jul 11, 2012, 5:44 PM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated Jul 11, 2012, 5:46 PM ]
Earlier data (it is 6:50 La Paz time) from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicated that Jimena was completing its eyewall replacement cycle with the inner eye dissipating and the new eye about 25-30 N mi across. The aircraft data suggest an intensity near 115 kt at that time. Since then the cloud tops near the center have warmed and the eye has not cleared out. Based on this it is estimated that Jimena has weakened a little more and the initial intensity is reduced to 110 kt. It now appears unlikely that there will be notable intensification at the end of the eyewall replacement cycle as Jimena is starting to move over cooler sea surface temperatures. A faster weakening should occur after landfall and an even faster weakening should occur with the onset of strong westerly vertical shear in about 72 hr. The new intensity forecast is significantly lower than that of the previous advisory and there is a chance that Jimena could weaken more than forecast after landfall. The forecast track of Jimena is almost parallel to the coast of Baja California.

Jimena is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph/19 km/hr and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track Jimena will be near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula tonight and Wednesday and be near or over the central Baja California peninsula Wednesday night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph/195 km/hr with higher gusts. Jimena is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. A gradual weakening is forecast during the next 24 to 48 hours. However Jimena could still be near major hurricane strength when it makes landfall. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles/75 km from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles/220 km. As of the La Paz current weather conditions their is no change as to the reporting on the La Paz BCS Infotheque website this afternoon. Since the early afternoon on and off showers and moderate wind.
Baja Solar Source

Published on: Sep 1, 2009 @ 17:52