Jimena should continue to weaken due to land interaction

posted Jul 11, 2012, 5:51 PM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated Jul 11, 2012, 5:52 PM ]
Satellite imagery suggests that at least the upper-level center of Jimena is over land. However earlier microwave imagery suggested the vortex was tilted with height toward the northeast and there is no recent microwave data to pinpoint the surface center. The best estimate is that the surface center has passed near or over Cabo San Lazaro during the past few hours. The satellite presentation continues to slowly deteriorate and based on this the initial intensity is reduced to 85 kt. Jimena should continue to weaken due to land interaction and the colder sea surface temperatures west of Baja California and increasing westerly vertical wind shear.
The cyclone is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm in about 24 hours to a tropical depression in about 48 hr and to a remnant low in about 72 hr. Even if the center emerges over the warm waters of the Gulf of California the forecast shear should prevent any re-intensification. Interests in the Hurricane Warning area are advised that strong winds will precede the arrival of the center by several hours so preparations need to be completed very soon.
Remember not to focus on the exact forecast track since dangerous impacts extend some distance from the center. The forecast track of Jimena is almost parallel to the coast of Baja California and small deviations left or right of the track could result in large errors