posted Sep 19, 2014, 5:43 AM by Tom Kachelman
updated Sep 19, 2014, 5:44 AM
Polo to pass south of the Baja California peninsula on Saturday. At 05:00 hr PDT the center of Tropical Storm Polo was about 470 km - 290 mi SSE of the southern tip of Baja California.
Interests elsewhere in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Polo.
A Tropical Storm Warning could be required for portions of the peninsula later today.
Polo is moving toward the northwest near 13 km/h - 8 mph and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected today.
A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Saturday.
On the forecast track the center will continue to move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico today and pass south of the Baja California peninsula on Saturday.
However any deviation to the north of the track could bring stronger winds to southern Baja California. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in southern Baja California on Saturday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 165 km - 105 miles from the center.
Polo, the sixteenth named storm of a busy eastern Pacific hurricane season, formed Tuesday several hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.
It became the season's eleventh hurricane on Wednesday.
Going forward, it remains uncertain how or if Polo will affect the Baja peninsula, which is still recovering from Hurricane Odile, the record-trying strongest hurricane to landfall in Baja California.
The current thinking is that building high pressure aloft over northern Mexico may help turn Polo toward the west-northwest, away from the southern Baja peninsula. Tropical storm conditions are possible in southern Baja California late Saturday and into Sunday.
Keep in mind, however, that the average forecast track error for eastern Pacific tropical cyclones 4 to 5 days in advance ranged from 144 to 191 miles in 2013.