Southwest of Manzanillo Mexico with greater than 50 percent of becoming a tropical cyclone

posted Jul 11, 2012, 7:30 PM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated Jul 11, 2012, 7:30 PM ]
A broad area of low pressure is located about 400 miles southwest of Manzanillo Mexico. Although associated shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished over the past few hours, environmental conditions appear favorable for development and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two as this system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. There is a high chance greater than 50 percent of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.