Tropical Storm Beatriz

posted Jul 12, 2012, 10:25 AM by Tom Kachelman   [ updated Jul 12, 2012, 10:26 AM ]
At 2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Beatriz was located near latitude 17.0 north...longitude 103.1 west. Beatriz is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph...13 km/h. A north-northwestward or northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected in the next 36 hours. On the forecast track the center of Beatriz will approach the coast within the Hurricane Warning area tonight or early Tuesday.

However any deviation to the right of the forecast track could bring the center onshore in the warning area. The government of Mexico has extended the Hurricane Warning northwestward from la Fortuna to Cabo Corrientes. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo northwestward to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Mexico from Tecpan de Galeana westward to east of Zihuatanejo.

For the folks at the Baja peninsula: The storm is +/- 600 miles away from Cabo. Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph...110 km/h...with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely during the next 36 hours...and Beatriz is forecast to become a hurricane tonight. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km from the center.

Rainfall...Beatriz is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches along the coasts of the states of Guerrero...Jalisco...Colima...and Michoacan in southwestern Mexico...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over mountainous terrain. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Storm surge...a storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the Hurricane Warning area. Near the coast...the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.