posted Nov 3, 2014, 6:33 AM by Tom Kachelman
updated Nov 3, 2014, 6:46 AM
Vance a category 2 hurricane maintaining 165 km/h winds located near latitude 14.5 north - longitude 110.3 west (about 810 km/ 505 mi SW of Manzanillo Mexico)
Hurricane Vance is moving toward the northwest near 22 km/h - 14 mph and a turn toward the north is expected by tonight followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast on Tuesday.
Satellite images indicate that Vance is maintaining its intensity, with very cold-topped inner core convection.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 165 km/h - 105 mph with higher gusts.
Vance could strengthen a little more today but a weakening trend is expected to begin tonight with steady to rapid weakening forecast thereafter.
Swells generated by Vance are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast Baja California Sur in a day or two.
Another system, 96E, with disorganized showers and thunderstorms is located several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico and associated with a broad area of
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some gradual development of this system during the next day or two while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable on Wednesday and development after that time is not likely.
- Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.